Bitcoin & Macro

Bitcoin is trading in the mid‑$60k range as ETF inflows remain steady and the Clarity Act nears House passage. Macro data shows cooling inflation but persistent geopolitical oil risks, setting a cautious‑bullish backdrop.

CPI and PPI came in below expectations, yet inflation stays above the 2% target, prompting expectations of flat rates. Iran‑related strikes on energy infrastructure have raised fears of a Bab el‑Mandeb closure that could push Brent oil to $150‑$200, adding upside pressure to inflation. Meanwhile, the US debt continues to grow by roughly $200 per person daily, weighing on broader liquidity.

The Clarity Act is within roughly 20 days of the August recess, with bipartisan negotiators close to agreement on consumer‑protection provisions. A parallel market‑structure bill has also advanced, reinforcing expectations of clearer rules for stablecoins and tokenized assets. Notably, the Genius Act’s one‑year deadline for final stablecoin regulations was missed, leaving issuers without promised clarity.

Bitcoin has held steady between $64k and $68k, with spot ETFs showing net inflows of over $100 M BTC in recent days. Technical watches include the 20‑weekly EMA near $70k, the 350‑week moving average around $47‑$50k as key support, and an ETH/BTC pivot near $2,150 that could trigger an alt‑coin rotation if reclaimed. Short‑term charts display bullish RSIs and MACD crossovers, though a resistance wall around $65.6‑$65.7k remains.

On‑chain data shows whale accumulation of roughly 66 k BTC over 60 days and long‑position pyramiding between $45k and $51k. Realized‑price bands indicate support near the long‑term holder realized price (~$49k) and short‑term holder realized price (~$67k). Dollar‑cost averaging into this zone is repeatedly cited as a low‑risk way to build exposure while awaiting a confirmed breakout.

Traders should wait for a decisive close above the 20‑weekly EMA (~$70k) before treating the trend as bullish, using the interim period to shore up finances or allocate to select undervalued tech stocks. If the breakout occurs, consider scaling into Bitcoin longs via a pyramid or dollar‑cost averaging approach, with stop‑losses placed below the 350‑week MA.